lutz logo
lutz logo
  • Services
  • News & Insights
  • About
  • Client Portal
Search
  • Services
  • Accounting
  • Advisory
  • Financial
  • M&A
  • Talent
  • Tech
  • Accounting Services
Services
  • Audit & Assurance
  • Client Advisory Services
  • Outsourced Accounting
  • Tax
  • Business Valuation
  • Litigation Support & Forensic
View All
Industries
  • Agribusiness
  • Construction
  • Family Office
  • Healthcare
  • Manufacturing & Distribution
  • Nonprofit
View All
News & Insights
Financial Access Checklist
Guide
Financial Access Checklist

Share this information with your spouse to assure you each have access to manage important financial tasks independently.

Read More
  • Advisory Services
Services
  • Accounting
  • Financial
  • M&A
  • Talent
  • Tech
View All
Resources
The Art of Budgeting
Recording
The Art of Budgeting + Smart Saving Strategies
Learn how to get your finances under control and increase your savings! Hear real-life examples and best practices to secure a successful future.
Watch Now
Business Insights
Comparing Business Valuation Methods
Blog
Comparing Business Valuation Methods: Which is Right for You?
Valuation experts rely on three primary approaches to determine the value of a business: income approach, asset approach, and market approach.
Read More
  • Financial Services
Services
  • Financial Planning
  • Investment Advisory
  • Retirement Plan Services
  • Pooled Employer 401(k) Plan
View All
Resources
  • Lutz Financial Blog
  • Our Team
  • Client Portal
  • Charles Schwab Login
  • Send Files Securely
Contact Us
NEWS & INSIGHTS
Website Featured Content Images
Market Commentary
Financial Market Updates

Read our latest financial market updates and sign up to receive them straight to your inbox.

Read More
  • M&A Services
Services
  • Sell-Side Representation
  • Transaction Advisory
  • Exit Planning
  • Business Valuation
View All
Resources
Selling a C Corporation
Blog
Factors to Consider When Selling a C Corporation

Understand the tax issues affecting both buyers and sellers involved in C corporation merger and acquisition transactions

Read More
Business Insights
Post-Acquisition Checklist
Guide
Post-Acquisition Checklist for a Seamless Transition
To help you navigate this critical period, we've compiled a comprehensive checklist covering key areas that demand attention after the deal closes. 
Read More
  • Talent Services
Services
  • Search & Staffing
  • Outsourced HR
  • HR Consulting
View All
Candidate Resources
  • Job Seeker Process
  • Current Opportunities
  • Lutz Internships
Contact Us
News & Insights
Overcoming Bias in Recruitment
Blog
Unconscious Bias in Recruitment: How to Overcome It
Learn how to take the bias out of recruitment and build a diverse, talented workforce with these tips.
Read More
  • Tech Services
Services
  • Outsourced IT
  • Data Analytics
  • Technology Strategy
  • Software Consulting
View All
Resources
When to outsource your IT
Blog
How to Know When It's Time to Partner with an IT Pro

One day your technology seems manageable, and the next you're wondering if you need more support. Here are the clear signs it's time to outsource your IT.

Read More
Business Insights
Untitled design (1)-Mar-08-2024-08-50-35-9527-PM
Video
Pella Client Testimonial
"I've used them for valuation work, stock transfers, hosting all of my technology, and now data analytics. I'd say they lead the pack in terms of anticipating what I'm going to need before I even know I need it."
View Now
Business Insights
BLOG
Explore Topics

Get the latest news and insights on relevant topics that matter most to you.

View All
Webinars & Events
Events
Register Today

Register for an upcoming event or access our library of on-demand recordings.

View All
Market Updates
COMMENTARY
Stay Informed

Catch up on market moves with our weekly update, featuring in-depth insights and analysis.

View All
Resources
EBOOKS & GUIDES
Download Now

Take a deep dive into challenging business topics with these free educational resources. 

View All
  • News & Insights
  • Business Insights
  • Webinars & Events
  • Market Updates
  • Resources
Business Insights
BLOG
Explore Topics

Get the latest news and insights on relevant topics that matter most to you.

View All
  • About
About

Lutz is a business solutions firm for people seeking a partner to help energize and heighten economic and organizational success.

Our Company
Our Team
Offices
Careers
Internships
Contact Us
  • Contact
Client Portal

Log in to your relevant client portal to access your account, upload documents, or make a payment.

Make a Payment
Accounting Client Portal
Financial Client Portal
Charles Schwab Login
Send Files Securely
Contact Us
  • Market Commentary

Are Rising Yields Bad for the Bond Market? + Market Update + 8.2.22

Josh Jenkins, CFA, Chief Investment Officer, Principal
August 2, 2022
Are Rising Yields Bad for the Bond Market? + Market Update + 8.2.22

It has been a challenging year for investors thus far, and it’s not all due to the stock market. Other asset classes have similarly experienced elevated levels of volatility in 2022. The bond market, for example, got off to one of the worst starts to a year in decades. Understandably, when an investment that typically has limited upside starts to experience some material downside, investors begin to question why they bother with it in the first place. Given the recent market turmoil, should investors rethink their bond allocations?

Spoiler alert… they most likely should not, as bonds play a critical role in a diversified portfolio. Bonds provide a crucial ballast to equity holdings as their return typically does not swing nearly as widely as stock returns. Additionally, they typically carry a very low, or even negative, correlation to stocks. This means that when one of the two zigs, the other often zags. The end result is a risk and return profile that generally becomes much more stable as the proportion of bonds to stocks increases. Combining these two asset classes allows an investor to calibrate the riskiness of their investments to match their unique situation.

The heightened volatility we have seen in the bond market this year has been a consequence of the Federal Reserve’s attempt to tamp down inflation. The Fed’s actions have pushed interest rates much higher very quickly. Bond prices move inversely with yields, so the rapid rise in yields has led to a startling decline in the value of bond portfolios.

Fortunately for investors, short-term pain in the bond market typically leads to long-term gains. The benefit comes from the fact that bondholders get to reinvest their ongoing interest payments at the increased yield levels. Over time, this benefit should more than compensate for the initial decline in value. The reverse is also true. While investors often cheer the impact of falling yields on their portfolio because, in the near term, their bonds are increasing in value, their future return prospects are also falling.

As the chart below illustrates, the relationship between changes in yield and the future return on bonds is quite strong. The blue line represents the yield on 5-Year Treasury bonds going back to the start of 1962. The green line represents the annualized return over the subsequent five years. While the lines are not perfectly in sync, they are clearly closely tied to each other. As the yield line rises (falls), the return over the next five years also increases (decreases).

Source: Morningstar Direct & the FRED database. The Yield is based on the Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, quoted on an investment basis. The 5-Year Forward Return is based on the IA SBBI Intermediate Term Bond Index.

The main takeaway is that investors should not fear rising rates. They should instead cheer them. Admittedly, the loss of value upfront can be painful, so this may be a little easier said than done. Still, the ability to reinvest at those new higher yields should ultimately make that initial drawdown worthwhile. Because of this, bonds are often referred to as the self-healing asset class.


WEEK IN REVIEW

  • The second quarter earnings season continues to press on, with 56% of S&P 500 companies having reported results, according to FactSet. The blended earnings growth rate, using actual data from companies that have reported and expectations for those that have yet to report, has increased to 6.0%. Entering earnings season, earnings were expected to increase by 4.0%.
  • Data published last week showed the economy generated negative GDP growth for the second consecutive quarter. While this meets a common (simplistic) definition of a recession, it does not definitively mean we are already in one. Additionally, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) published July’s reading of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which represents the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation. Both the headline and core (which excludes the volatile food and energy categories) indices came in higher than expected.
  • Major economic data points to be published later this week include an update on activity within the services sector and factory orders on Wednesday. On Thursday, we will get initial jobless claims. Headlining the week of data is the jobs report that will be published Friday.


ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Source: MarketWatch


HOT READS

Markets

  • Inflation Figure That the Fed Follows Closely Hits Highest Level Since January 1982 (CNBC)
  • The Disastrous Record of Celebrity Crypto Endorsements (Bloomberg)
  • Demand for Workers Fell in June to Lowest Level in Nine Months (WSJ)

Investing

  • Tails You Win (Morgan Housel)
  • Staying Rich (Adam Grossman)
  • Investing in Home Renovations vs. Investing in Stocks (Ben Carlson)

Other

  • So Is the LIV Golf Product Any Good? Here’s Analysis After Three Events (Sports Illustrated)
  • The Best Family Board Games (Wired)
  • Pickleball Is Booming. Not Everyone Is Happy About That (GQ)

MARKETS AT A GLANCE

Source: Morningstar Direct.

Source: Morningstar Direct.

Source: Treasury.gov

Source: Treasury.gov

Source: FRED Database & ICE Benchmark Administration Limited (IBA)

Source: FRED Database & ICE Benchmark Administration Limited (IBA)

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

  • Competition, Achiever, Relator, Analytical, Ideation

Josh Jenkins, CFA

Chief Investment Officer, Principal

Josh Jenkins, Chief Investment Officer, began his career in 2010. With a background in investment analysis and portfolio management from his previous roles, he quickly advanced to his current leadership position. As a member of the Lutz Financial Board and Chair of the Investment Committee, he guides Lutz Financial’s investment strategy and helps to manage day-to-day operations. 

Leading the investment team, Josh directs research initiatives, while overseeing asset allocation, fund selection, portfolio management, and trading. He authors the weekly Financial Market Update, providing clients with timely insights on market conditions and economic trends. Josh values the analytical nature of his work and the opportunity to collaborate with talented colleagues while continuously expanding his knowledge of the financial markets. 

 

At Lutz, Josh exemplifies the firm’s commitment to maintaining discipline and helping clients navigate market uncertainties with confidence. While staying true to the systematic investment process, he works to keep clients' long-term financial goals at the center of his decision-making. 

 

Josh lives in Omaha, NE. Outside the office, he likes to stay active, travel, and play golf. 

402.763.2967

jjenkins@lutz.us

Connect on LinkedIn

Recent News & Insights

Private Practice
Recruiting medical talent? Know the Tax Implications of Modern Compensation Packages
With the average medical school debt now exceeding $200,000 and nearly 35% of physicians ...
Read More
Talent
How Stay Interviews Help Retain High Performers
When a company loses a high-performing employee, it often disrupts teams, affects morale, and ...
Read More
M&A
The Importance of Hiring an M&A Team
Selling or buying a business is one of the most significant financial decisions an owner will ...
Read More
Client Advisory Services
Treasury Management: Strategies to Improve Financial Stability & Growth
Good treasury management keeps your business steady and growing. At its core, treasury ...
Read More
module-bg-desktop module-bg-mobile

Let’s get you where you want to go.

We work to simplify complexities, help make critical business decisions, and confidently focus on the things that are truly important to you. We embrace your business as our own to spark the right solutions and help you thrive.
Contact Us
Lutz-Logo-white
  • Services
    • Accounting
    • Consulting
    • Financial
    • M&A
    • Talent
    • Tech
  • About
    • Our Company
    • Our Team
    • Offices
    • Careers
    • Internships
    • Current Opportunities
  • Client Portal
    • Make a Payment
    • Accounting Client Portal
    • Financial Client Portal
    • Send Files Securely
    Submit RFP
TOLL-FREE: 866.577.0780 | © Lutz & company, PC 2025 | Privacy Policy
Follow us on Facebook Follow us on LinkedIn Twitter - X Logo Follow us on Instagram Follow us on Facebook